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Arenas Getxo vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
CANC
00:00
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
3/14/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Campo de Fadura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Arenas Getxo38%
×Draw28%
Unionistas de Salamanca35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
1.24
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
0.85
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.31

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.04
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.62

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
65%
Arenas Getxo or Unionistas de Salamanca
72%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
62%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
16%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
71%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
35%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
13%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
69%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
33%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
52%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 0.85 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.24

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.31 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
38%
level
28%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
35%

Arenas Getxo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arenas Getxo vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Match Preview

Arenas Getxo face Unionistas de Salamanca on March 14, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Arenas Getxo host Unionistas de Salamanca at Campo de Fadura.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.