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Arenas Getxo vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
9/27/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Campo Municipal de Gobela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arenas Getxo46%
×Draw26%
Unionistas de Salamanca28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
1.45
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.06

Arenas Getxo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 106 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
1.63
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.21
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
72%
Arenas Getxo or Unionistas de Salamanca
74%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
54%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
23%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
77%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
42%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
18%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
65%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
29%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
62%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 1.63 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
46%
level
26%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
28%

Arenas Getxo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arenas Getxo 2 – 1 Unionistas de Salamanca

Arenas Getxo beat Unionistas de Salamanca 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Gobela in Getxo.