Union Titus Petange 0–1 FC Differdange 03

Union Titus Petange

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Differdange 03

4/26/2026

National Division · Round 26Stade Municipal de Petange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Union Titus Petange32%

×Draw25%

FC Differdange 0343%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Titus PetangeExpected goals in this matchFC Differdange 03

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.58

Union Titus Petange

1.32

FC Differdange 03

1.58

FC Differdange 03 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

1.54

creates per match

1.83

1.32

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Union Titus Petange

1.54

FC Differdange 03

1.83

allows per match

Union Titus Petange

1.32

FC Differdange 03

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

FC Differdange 03+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Titus Petange ↓

FC Differdange 03 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Union Titus Petange or draw

57%

Union Titus Petange or FC Differdange 03

75%

Draw or FC Differdange 03

68%

Winning margin

Union Titus Petange wins by 2+

14%

FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Union Titus Petange 1+ goals

73%

Union Titus Petange 2+ goals

38%

Union Titus Petange 3+ goals

15%

FC Differdange 03 1+ goals

79%

FC Differdange 03 2+ goals

47%

FC Differdange 03 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)

42%

FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Titus Petange at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.32 · 112 matches

FC Differdange 03 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Titus Petange attack 1.54 + FC Differdange 03 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.32

FC Differdange 03 attack 1.83 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union Titus Petange scores more

32%

level

25%

FC Differdange 03 scores more

43%

FC Differdange 03 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff