FC Differdange 03 2–0 Union Titus Petange

FC Differdange 03

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union Titus Petange

3/8/2025

National Division · Round 20Stade Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

FC Differdange 0355%

×Draw23%

Union Titus Petange22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Differdange 03Expected goals in this matchUnion Titus Petange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.10

FC Differdange 03

1.87

Union Titus Petange

1.10

FC Differdange 03 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

2.14

creates per match

1.26

0.95

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

FC Differdange 03

2.14

Union Titus Petange

1.26

allows per match

FC Differdange 03

0.95

Union Titus Petange

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Differdange 03+0.00on par

Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Differdange 03 ↓

Union Titus Petange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Differdange 03 or draw

78%

FC Differdange 03 or Union Titus Petange

77%

Draw or Union Titus Petange

45%

Winning margin

FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+

32%

Union Titus Petange wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC Differdange 03 1+ goals

85%

FC Differdange 03 2+ goals

56%

FC Differdange 03 3+ goals

29%

Union Titus Petange 1+ goals

67%

Union Titus Petange 2+ goals

30%

Union Titus Petange 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)

71%

Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Differdange 03 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 111 matches

Union Titus Petange away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Differdange 03 attack 2.14 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.87

Union Titus Petange attack 1.26 + FC Differdange 03 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Differdange 03 scores more

55%

level

23%

Union Titus Petange scores more

22%

FC Differdange 03 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff