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FC Differdange 03 vs Union Titus Petange — Cup 2020

FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03advanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Union Titus Petange
Union Titus Petange
11/9/2025CupCup · Round of 32Stade Municipal de la Ville de Differdange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Differdange 0348%
×Draw20%
Union Titus Petange32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Differdange 03
2.26
Union Titus Petange
1.83

FC Differdange 03 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

FC Differdange 03
3.22
Union Titus Petange
3.00

allows per match

FC Differdange 03
0.67
Union Titus Petange
1.30

finishing

FC Differdange 03+0.00on par
Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Differdange 03 ↓

Union Titus Petange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

FC Differdange 03 or draw
68%
FC Differdange 03 or Union Titus Petange
80%
Draw or Union Titus Petange
52%

Winning margin

FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+
28%
Union Titus Petange wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Differdange 03 1+ goals
89%
FC Differdange 03 2+ goals
66%
FC Differdange 03 3+ goals
39%
Union Titus Petange 1+ goals
84%
Union Titus Petange 2+ goals
54%
Union Titus Petange 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)
60%
Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Differdange 03 at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Union Titus Petange away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Differdange 03 attack 3.22 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.26

Union Titus Petange attack 3.00 + FC Differdange 03 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Differdange 03 scores more
48%
level
20%
Union Titus Petange scores more
32%

FC Differdange 03 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Differdange 03 2 – 1 Union Titus Petange

FC Differdange 03 beat Union Titus Petange 2-1 in Cup on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de la Ville de Differdange in Differdange.