Union St. Gilloise 3–1 KVC Westerlo: Result & Stats

Union St. Gilloise

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

KVC Westerlo

F. Ivanović 52', 45', 40'

J. Bos 54'

12/15/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 18Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Union St. Gilloise59%

×Draw21%

KVC Westerlo20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union St. GilloiseExpected goals in this matchKVC Westerlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.08

Union St. Gilloise

2.02

KVC Westerlo

1.08

Union St. Gilloise creates 87% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 21 away

2.09

creates per match

1.42

0.75

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise

2.09

KVC Westerlo

1.42

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise

0.75

KVC Westerlo

1.95

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.28scores more

KVC Westerlo-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

KVC Westerlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw

80%

Union St. Gilloise or KVC Westerlo

79%

Draw or KVC Westerlo

41%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

35%

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

87%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

60%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

33%

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals

66%

KVC Westerlo 2+ goals

29%

KVC Westerlo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

75%

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.75 · 27 matches

KVC Westerlo away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.09 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.02

KVC Westerlo attack 1.42 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more

59%

level

21%

KVC Westerlo scores more

20%

Union St. Gilloise at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Ivanović

Union St. Gilloise · F

9.3

Match Events

-5'

16'

33'

40'

45+3'

45'

46'

A. Ait El Hadj← S. Boufal

50'

Alfie Devine

52'

F. Ivanović↳ P. David

54'

J. Bos↳ D. Haspolat

60'

G. Yow← A. Piedfort

60'

J. Alcócer← A. Sayyadmanesh

70'

K. Rodríguez← F. Ivanović

70'

F. Leysen← K. Mac Allister

76'

D. Mebude← B. Reynolds

84'

O. Niang← L. Lapoussin

90+4'

Promise David

90+4'

A. Castro-Montes← A. Khalaili

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionKVC

Overview

53%Possession47%

29Total Shots10

4.28Expected Goals (xG)0.76

15Corners6

10Fouls5

Shots

29Total Shots10

13On Target4

8Off Target2

8Blocked4

23Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

376Total Passes337

290Accurate Passes239

77%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

1.75Goals Prevented1.75

Discipline

10Fouls5

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2