Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KVC Westerlo vs Union St. Gilloise — Jupiler Pro League 2025

KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
B. Reynolds 54'
A. Sayyadmanesh 32'
D. Mebude 17'
D. Haspolat 14'
P. David 90+2'
M. Fuseini 70'
K. Rodríguez 5'
8/10/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 3Het Kuipje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

KVC Westerlo35%
×Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KVC Westerlo
1.39
Union St. Gilloise
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

creates per match

KVC Westerlo
1.70
Union St. Gilloise
1.56

allows per match

KVC Westerlo
1.49
Union St. Gilloise
1.07

finishing

KVC Westerlo-0.28scores less
Union St. Gilloise-0.26scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KVC Westerlo ↓

Union St. Gilloise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

KVC Westerlo or draw
59%
KVC Westerlo or Union St. Gilloise
75%
Draw or Union St. Gilloise
65%

Winning margin

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
16%
Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
75%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
40%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
16%
Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals
78%
Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals
45%
Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
46%
Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KVC Westerlo at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.49 · 24 matches

Union St. Gilloise away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KVC Westerlo attack 1.70 + Union St. Gilloise defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.39

Union St. Gilloise attack 1.56 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KVC Westerlo scores more
35%
level
25%
Union St. Gilloise scores more
41%

Union St. Gilloise at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47
D. MebudeKVC WesterloKVC Westerlo · M
8.2

Match Events

-5'
Lucas Stassin
5'
K. Rodríguez↳ M. Rasmussen
14'
D. Haspolat
17'
D. Mebude↳ L. Stassin
32'
A. Sayyadmanesh
39'
Anan Khalaili
45'
Fedde Leysen
46'
P. David← K. Rodríguez
49'
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
54'
B. Reynolds↳ D. Mebude
58'
Tuur Rommens
58'
Cameron Puertas← A. Ait El Hadj
58'
C. Terho← A. Khalaili
58'
N. Sadiki← M. Rasmussen
64'
M. Frigan← L. Stassin
65'
G. Yow← D. Mebude
65'
J. Alcócer← A. Sayyadmanesh
70'
M. Fuseini
74'
T. Van den Keybus← A. Piedfort
74'
E. Kabangu← F. Leysen
75'
Doğucan Haspolat
87'
Thomas Van den Keybus
90+8'
Casper Terho
90'
M. Fixelles← N. Madsen
90+2'
P. David↳ A. Castro-Montes

Possession

45%KVC

Shots

23KVC

Pass accuracy

47%KVC

Statistics

KVCUnion
Overview
45%Possession55%
23Total Shots14
3.72Expected Goals (xG)2.40
5Corners6
11Fouls15
Shots
23Total Shots14
10On Target7
8Off Target2
5Blocked5
19Inside Box10
4Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
320Total Passes392
214Accurate Passes294
67%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
1.40Goals Prevented1.40
Discipline
11Fouls15
5Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Match Recap: KVC Westerlo vs Union St. Gilloise

KVC Westerlo beat Union St. Gilloise 4-3 in Jupiler Pro League on August 10, 2024.

Goals: K. Rodríguez (5'), D. Haspolat (14'), D. Mebude (17'), A. Sayyadmanesh (32'), B. Reynolds (54'), M. Fuseini (70'), P. David (90+2').

Union St. Gilloise controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 23.

The match was played at Het Kuipje in Westerlo.