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Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo — Jupiler Pro League 2025

Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
L. Lapoussin 59', 15'
N. Madsen 90+6' (pen)
T. Van den Keybus 6'
2/10/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 25Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Union St. Gilloise56%
×Draw22%
KVC Westerlo22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union St. Gilloise
1.92
KVC Westerlo
1.10

Union St. Gilloise creates 75% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise
2.01
KVC Westerlo
1.45

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise
0.75
KVC Westerlo
1.83

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.34scores more
KVC Westerlo-0.15scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

KVC Westerlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw
78%
Union St. Gilloise or KVC Westerlo
78%
Draw or KVC Westerlo
44%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+
33%
KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals
85%
Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals
57%
Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals
30%
KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
67%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
30%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)
72%
KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.75 · 26 matches

KVC Westerlo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.83 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.01 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

KVC Westerlo attack 1.45 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more
56%
level
22%
KVC Westerlo scores more
22%

Union St. Gilloise at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. LapoussinUnion St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise · M
8.9

Match Events

6'
T. Van den Keybus↳ R. Vermant
15'
L. Lapoussin↳ M. Rasmussen
25'
Casper Terho
49'
Emin Bayram
52'
Griffin Yow
57'
A. Castro-Montes← C. Terho
59'
L. Lapoussin↳ G. Nilsson
62'
Charles Vanhoutte
69'
N. Sadiki← M. Rasmussen
69'
N. Madsen← T. Van den Keybus
69'
N. Chadli← A. Sayyadmanesh
69'
D. Haspolat← S. Sydorchuk
72'
Mohamed El Amine Amoura
75'
Kevin Mac Allister
83'
D. Eckert Ayensa← M. Amoura
83'
M. Frigan← G. Yow
90+3'
Matija FriganPenalty confirmed
90+7'
R. Tagir← R. Vermant
90+6'
N. MadsenPenalty

Possession

56%Union

Shots

17Union

Pass accuracy

51%Union

Statistics

UnionKVC
Overview
56%Possession44%
17Total Shots9
1.95Expected Goals (xG)1.96
4Corners4
14Fouls8
Shots
17Total Shots9
3On Target4
8Off Target1
6Blocked4
11Inside Box7
6Outside Box2
Passing
56%Possession44%
512Total Passes404
405Accurate Passes304
79%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls8
4Yellow Cards2

Jupiler Pro League: Union St. Gilloise 2–2 KVC Westerlo

Union St. Gilloise and KVC Westerlo drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on February 10, 2024.

Goals: T. Van den Keybus (6'), L. Lapoussin (15', 59'), N. Madsen (90+6' pen).

Union St. Gilloise controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Joseph Mariën in Brussels.