Union St. Gilloise 6–2 Deinze: Result & Stats

Union St. Gilloise

FT

6 – 2

Deinze

7/6/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportcentrum De Zeype

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Union St. Gilloise79%

×Draw13%

Deinze8%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union St. GilloiseExpected goals in this matchDeinze

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

0.88

Union St. Gilloise

3.00

Deinze

0.88

Union St. Gilloise creates 241% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

4.00

creates per match

1.00

0.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise

4.00

Deinze

1.00

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise

0.75

Deinze

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.00on par

Deinze+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

Deinze →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw

92%

Union St. Gilloise or Deinze

87%

Draw or Deinze

21%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

60%

Deinze wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

95%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

79%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

56%

Deinze 1+ goals

59%

Deinze 2+ goals

22%

Deinze 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

91%

Deinze (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Deinze away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 4.00 + Deinze defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Deinze attack 1.00 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more

79%

level

13%

Deinze scores more

8%

Union St. Gilloise at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff