Deinze 2–4 Union St. Gilloise: Result & Stats

Deinze

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Union St. Gilloise

1/23/2021

League #145 · Round 16Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Deinze25%

×Draw23%

Union St. Gilloise52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeinzeExpected goals in this matchUnion St. Gilloise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.81

Deinze

1.19

Union St. Gilloise

1.81

Union St. Gilloise creates 52% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.88

creates per match

2.25

1.38

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Deinze

1.88

Union St. Gilloise

2.25

allows per match

Deinze

1.38

Union St. Gilloise

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deinze+0.00on par

Union St. Gilloise+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deinze ↓

Union St. Gilloise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Deinze or draw

48%

Deinze or Union St. Gilloise

77%

Draw or Union St. Gilloise

75%

Winning margin

Deinze wins by 2+

10%

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Deinze 1+ goals

70%

Deinze 2+ goals

33%

Deinze 3+ goals

12%

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

84%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

54%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Deinze (draw refunded)

33%

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deinze at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Union St. Gilloise away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deinze attack 1.88 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.25 + Deinze defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deinze scores more

25%

level

23%

Union St. Gilloise scores more

52%

Union St. Gilloise at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff