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Deinze vs Union St. Gilloise — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Deinze
Deinze
FT
0 – 1
Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
7/2/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Dakota Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Deinze37%
×Draw24%
Union St. Gilloise39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deinze
1.54
Union St. Gilloise
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Deinze
2.00
Union St. Gilloise
2.87

allows per match

Deinze
0.33
Union St. Gilloise
1.07

finishing

Deinze+0.00on par
Union St. Gilloise+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deinze ↓

Union St. Gilloise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Deinze or draw
61%
Deinze or Union St. Gilloise
76%
Draw or Union St. Gilloise
63%

Winning margin

Deinze wins by 2+
18%
Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Deinze 1+ goals
79%
Deinze 2+ goals
45%
Deinze 3+ goals
20%
Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals
80%
Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals
47%
Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Deinze (draw refunded)
48%
Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deinze at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Union St. Gilloise away — creates 2.87, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deinze attack 2.00 + Union St. Gilloise defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.87 + Deinze defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deinze scores more
37%
level
24%
Union St. Gilloise scores more
39%

Union St. Gilloise at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deinze vs Union St. Gilloise

Union St. Gilloise beat Deinze 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Dakota Arena in Deinze.