Union Namur vs Albert Quévy-Mons — League #487 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Union Namur21%
Albert Quévy-Mons57%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Albert Quévy-Mons creates 75% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Union Namur ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Union Namur at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches
Albert Quévy-Mons away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Union Namur attack 1.22 + Albert Quévy-Mons defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11
Albert Quévy-Mons attack 1.78 + Union Namur defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Albert Quévy-Mons at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Albert Quévy-Mons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Union Namur host Albert Quévy-Mons on Sunday, 29 September 2024 at 13:00. The match is part of the League #487 2026/2027 season.
Union Namur 0 – 5 Albert Quévy-Mons
Albert Quévy-Mons beat Union Namur 5-0 in League #487 on September 29, 2024.
Goals: D. De Belder (18', 27', 74'), A. Benoît (64'), L. Walbrecq (89').
The match was played at Terrain Jambes ADEPS in Jambes.