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Albert Quévy-Mons vs Union Namur — League #487 2026

Albert Quévy-Mons
Albert Quévy-Mons
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Union Namur
Union Namur
G. dos Santos 75'
L. Brogno 45'
R. Blake 3'
Y. Bentayeb 2'
1/17/2026League #487League #487 · ACFF - 19Stade Charles Tondreau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Albert Quévy-Mons71%
×Draw17%
Union Namur12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albert Quévy-Mons
2.46
Union Namur
0.92

Albert Quévy-Mons creates 167% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Albert Quévy-Mons
2.67
Union Namur
1.50

allows per match

Albert Quévy-Mons
0.33
Union Namur
2.25

finishing

Albert Quévy-Mons+0.00on par
Union Namur+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albert Quévy-Mons ↓

Union Namur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Albert Quévy-Mons or draw
88%
Albert Quévy-Mons or Union Namur
83%
Draw or Union Namur
29%

Winning margin

Albert Quévy-Mons wins by 2+
48%
Union Namur wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Albert Quévy-Mons 1+ goals
91%
Albert Quévy-Mons 2+ goals
70%
Albert Quévy-Mons 3+ goals
44%
Union Namur 1+ goals
60%
Union Namur 2+ goals
23%
Union Namur 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Albert Quévy-Mons (draw refunded)
85%
Union Namur (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albert Quévy-Mons at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Union Namur away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albert Quévy-Mons attack 2.67 + Union Namur defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.46

Union Namur attack 1.50 + Albert Quévy-Mons defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Albert Quévy-Mons scores more
71%
level
17%
Union Namur scores more
12%

Albert Quévy-Mons at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Albert Quévy-Mons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Y. Bentayeb
3'
R. Blake
45'
L. Brogno
75'
G. dos Santos
Albert
Union
L. Nasca
Manager: L. Nasca
D. Vandenbroeck
Manager: D. Vandenbroeck

League #487: Albert Quévy-Mons 4–0 Union Namur

Albert Quévy-Mons beat Union Namur 4-0 in League #487 on January 17, 2026.

Goals: Y. Bentayeb (2'), R. Blake (3'), L. Brogno (45'), G. dos Santos (75').

The match was played at Stade Charles Tondreau in Mons.