Albert Quévy-Mons 3–1 Union Namur: Result & Stats

Albert Quévy-Mons

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Union Namur

D. De Belder 55'

L. Franco 53'

D. Sula 42'

D. Lwangi 59'

11/9/2024

League #487 · ACFF - 12Stade Charles Tondreau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Albert Quévy-Mons73%

×Draw17%

Union Namur10%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albert Quévy-MonsExpected goals in this matchUnion Namur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.75

Albert Quévy-Mons

2.33

Union Namur

0.75

Albert Quévy-Mons creates 211% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.67

creates per match

1.17

0.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Albert Quévy-Mons

2.67

Union Namur

1.17

allows per match

Albert Quévy-Mons

0.33

Union Namur

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albert Quévy-Mons+0.00on par

Union Namur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albert Quévy-Mons ↓

Union Namur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Albert Quévy-Mons or draw

90%

Albert Quévy-Mons or Union Namur

83%

Draw or Union Namur

27%

Winning margin

Albert Quévy-Mons wins by 2+

49%

Union Namur wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Albert Quévy-Mons 1+ goals

90%

Albert Quévy-Mons 2+ goals

67%

Albert Quévy-Mons 3+ goals

41%

Union Namur 1+ goals

53%

Union Namur 2+ goals

17%

Union Namur 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Albert Quévy-Mons (draw refunded)

87%

Union Namur (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albert Quévy-Mons at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Union Namur away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albert Quévy-Mons attack 2.67 + Union Namur defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Union Namur attack 1.17 + Albert Quévy-Mons defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Albert Quévy-Mons scores more

73%

level

17%

Union Namur scores more

10%

Albert Quévy-Mons at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Albert Quévy-Mons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. Eloy← A. Sbaa

42'

53'

55'

57'

57'

59'

59'

J. Kumbi← L. Walbrecq

59'

66'

76'

78'

82'

87'

Y. Bangoura← D. De Belder

Albert

Union

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Franco

Vanhecke

⚽

▼

Sula

Bamona

⚽

▼

Belder

▼

Walbrecq

Manager: D. Brogno

59'▲L. Brogno←▼D. Sula

59'▲J. Kumbi←▼L. Walbrecq

76'▲F. Maes←▼L. Franco

82'▲G. Dupire←▼A. Penin

87'▲Y. Bangoura←▼D. De Belder

Albert Quévy-Mons substitutes

BrognoKumbiMaesDupireBangoura

Manager: D. Vandenbroeck

14'▲A. Eloy←▼A. Sbaa

57'▲P. Noe←▼K. Detienne

57'▲J. Nzila←▼M. Laloux

66'▲E. Khaida←▼L. Besson

78'▲L. Guérin←▼C. Kabeya

Union Namur substitutes

EloyNoeNzilaKhaidaGuérin