Union Magdalena 1–1 Deportivo Pasto: Result & Stats

Union Magdalena

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Pasto

R. Marquez 10'

Y. Valois 86'

8/7/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 6Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Union Magdalena41%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Pasto30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union MagdalenaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.01

Union Magdalena

1.23

Deportivo Pasto

1.01

Union Magdalena creates 22% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 170 away

1.14

creates per match

0.79

1.23

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Union Magdalena

1.14

Deportivo Pasto

0.79

allows per match

Union Magdalena

1.23

Deportivo Pasto

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw

70%

Union Magdalena or Deportivo Pasto

71%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

59%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

71%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

35%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

27%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

58%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.23 · 81 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.32 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.14 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deportivo Pasto attack 0.79 + Union Magdalena defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Union Magdalena scores more

41%

level

29%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

30%

Union Magdalena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Y. Valois

Deportivo Pasto · F

7.9

Match Events

10'

R. Marquez↳ J. Mercado

17'

Fabián Cantillo

32'

Freddy Espinal

46'

M. S. Jimenez← J. Bernal

46'

46'

49'

55'

64'

J. Mendez← L. Caicedo

64'

D. Camacho← J. Valencia

70'

70'

72'

73'

75'

76'

M. Martinez← R. Marquez

76'

J. Tello← F. Cantillo

77'

Andrés Alarcón

86'

Y. Valois↳ D. Camacho

89'

J. Lerma← D. Murillo

90+2'

Hervin Goyes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionDeportivo

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots8

1.32Expected Goals (xG)0.54

5Corners2

15Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots8

7On Target2

2Off Target1

3Blocked5

7Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

390Total Passes371

302Accurate Passes290

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls11

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Union Magdalena vs Deportivo Pasto

Union Magdalena and Deportivo Pasto drew 1-1 in Primera A on August 7, 2025.

Goals: R. Marquez (10'), Y. Valois (86').

Union Magdalena controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.

Union Magdalena vs Deportivo Pasto — Primera A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Union Magdalena vs Deportivo Pasto