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Deportivo Pasto vs Union Magdalena — Copa Colombia 2026

Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
D. Quinones 65'
P. Preciado 40'
A. Alarcon 17'
C. Iguaran 37' (pen)
6/12/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st Round - 4Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Deportivo Pasto43%
×Draw26%
Union Magdalena30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto
1.44
Union Magdalena
1.16

Deportivo Pasto creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.69
Union Magdalena
1.25

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.06
Union Magdalena
1.19

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par
Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Union Magdalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw
70%
Deportivo Pasto or Union Magdalena
74%
Draw or Union Magdalena
57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
21%
Union Magdalena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
18%
Union Magdalena 1+ goals
69%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
32%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
59%
Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.69 + Union Magdalena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.44

Union Magdalena attack 1.25 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more
43%
level
26%
Union Magdalena scores more
30%

Deportivo Pasto at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
A. Alarcon
37'
C. IguaranPenalty
40'
P. Preciado
65'
D. Quinones
Deportivo
Union
Jonathan Risueno
Manager: Jonathan Risueno
Carlos Silva
Manager: Carlos Silva

Copa Colombia: Deportivo Pasto 3–1 Union Magdalena

Deportivo Pasto beat Union Magdalena 3-1 in Copa Colombia on June 12, 2025.

Goals: A. Alarcon (17'), C. Iguaran (37' pen), P. Preciado (40'), D. Quinones (65').

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in Pasto.