Union Magdalena vs Deportivo Pasto — Primera A 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 81+ matches
Union Magdalena41%
Deportivo Pasto30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Union Magdalena creates 22% more chances
Season form · 81 home / 170 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Union Magdalena ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.23 · 81 matches
Deportivo Pasto away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.32 · 170 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Union Magdalena attack 1.14 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23
Deportivo Pasto attack 0.79 + Union Magdalena defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Union Magdalena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Atletico Nacional
Junior
Deportes Tolima
Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
Bucaramanga
Once Caldas
Fortaleza FCDeportivo Pasto
Águilas Doradas
Millonarios
Deportivo Cali
Llaneros
Alianza Valledupar
Internacional de Bogota
Chico
Deportivo PereiraUnion Magdalena
Envigado
Jaguares
CucutaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Union Magdalena host Deportivo Pasto on Saturday, 29 April 2023 at 21:10. The match is part of the Primera A 2026/2027 season.
Primera A: Union Magdalena 2–1 Deportivo Pasto
Union Magdalena beat Deportivo Pasto 2-1 in Primera A on April 29, 2023.
Goals: Y. Romero (7'), I. Camargo (45+7' pen), E. López (89' pen).
Union Magdalena controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 15.
The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.