Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Union Magdalena vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
R. Blanco 58' (pen)
O. Barreto 35'
Y. A. Gomez Mosquera 90'
E. Rodriguez 14'
3/3/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 7Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Union Magdalena38%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Cali34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Magdalena
1.22
Deportivo Cali
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 43 away

creates per match

Union Magdalena
1.14
Deportivo Cali
0.91

allows per match

Union Magdalena
1.36
Deportivo Cali
1.30

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw
66%
Union Magdalena or Deportivo Cali
72%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
62%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+
16%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals
70%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
34%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
53%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.14 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Deportivo Cali attack 0.91 + Union Magdalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Union Magdalena scores more
38%
level
28%
Deportivo Cali scores more
34%

Union Magdalena at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
E. RodriguezDeportivo CaliDeportivo Cali · F
8.2

Match Events

14'
E. Rodriguez
33'
José Caldera
35'
O. Barreto
41'
Eric KramePenalty confirmed
46'
C. E. Sencion Rodriguez← E. Krame
46'
I. Venecia← Juan Quintero
46'
J. Cantillo← Javier Reina
48'
Victor Mejia
50'
G. Cabezas← V. Mejia
55'
Michael Kamara
58'
R. BlancoPenalty
61'
Ruyery Blanco
69'
J. Cabal← A. Estupinan
74'
J. Pinto← V. Sanchez
74'
R. Marquez← R. Blanco
77'
F. Castillo← J. Barrera
83'
J. Giraldo← O. Barreto
83'
J. Aleman← J. Sarmiento
90'
Y. A. Gomez Mosquera

Possession

46%Union

Shots

22Union

Pass accuracy

50%Union

Statistics

UnionDeportivo
Overview
46%Possession54%
22Total Shots5
3Corners4
17Fouls12
Shots
22Total Shots5
4On Target5
12Off Target0
6Blocked0
12Inside Box5
10Outside Box0
Passing
46%Possession54%
224Total Passes281
152Accurate Passes193
68%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Union Magdalena vs Deportivo Cali

Union Magdalena and Deportivo Cali drew 2-2 in Primera A on March 3, 2025.

Goals: E. Rodriguez (14'), O. Barreto (35'), R. Blanco (58' pen), Y. A. Gomez Mosquera (90').

Deportivo Cali controlled possession (54%) and registered 5 shots to 22.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.