Deportivo Cali 3–1 Union Magdalena: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Union Magdalena

J. Martinez 64', 46'

A. Estupinan 6' (pen)

R. Marquez 81' (pen)

8/14/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 7Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Deportivo Cali51%

×Draw27%

Union Magdalena22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchUnion Magdalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.83

Deportivo Cali

1.42

Union Magdalena

0.83

Deportivo Cali creates 71% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 25 away

1.20

creates per match

0.72

0.95

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.20

Union Magdalena

0.72

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.95

Union Magdalena

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Union Magdalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

78%

Deportivo Cali or Union Magdalena

73%

Draw or Union Magdalena

49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

25%

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

41%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

17%

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

56%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

20%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

70%

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.20 + Union Magdalena defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Union Magdalena attack 0.72 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

51%

level

27%

Union Magdalena scores more

22%

Deportivo Cali at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Y. Quintero

Deportivo Cali · M

7.7

Match Events

6'

A. EstupinanPenalty

24'

Y. Gordillo← A. Colorado

39'

41'

45+1'

45+2'

46'

J. Moreno← F. Mimbacas

46'

J. Martinez↳ Y. Quintero

64'

J. Martinez

70'

M. Martinez← J. Contreras

71'

J. Giraldo← J. Congo

71'

J. Mercado← F. Cantillo

71'

E. Lastre← R. R. Colpa Bolano

74'

F. Castillo

76'

J. Arango← F. Castillo

77'

Y. Gordillo

81'

R. MarquezPenalty

88'

F. Aguilar← A. Estupinan

88'

Javier Reina← J. Martinez

90+1'

J. Moreno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoUnion

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots12

4Corners8

16Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots12

5On Target7

3Off Target4

3Blocked1

6Inside Box9

5Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

311Total Passes337

233Accurate Passes246

75%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls13

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0