Union Magdalena 3–4 Deportivo Cali: Result & Stats

Union Magdalena

FT

3 – 4

HT: 3 – 1

Deportivo Cali

G. Torres 29' (pen)

N. Gil 19'

R. Márquez 14'

G. Ramírez 65', 55'

F. Castro 59'

A. Parra 21'

9/26/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 14Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Union Magdalena40%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cali33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union MagdalenaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.18

Union Magdalena

1.31

Deportivo Cali

1.18

Union Magdalena creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 46 away

1.25

creates per match

0.93

1.42

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Union Magdalena

1.25

Deportivo Cali

0.93

allows per match

Union Magdalena

1.42

Deportivo Cali

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw

67%

Union Magdalena or Deportivo Cali

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

60%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

73%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

38%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

54%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.25 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Deportivo Cali attack 0.93 + Union Magdalena defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Magdalena scores more

40%

level

27%

Deportivo Cali scores more

33%

Union Magdalena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

A. Parra

Deportivo Cali · M

8.7

Match Events

14'

R. Márquez↳ G. Torres

15'

Ricardo Márquez

19'

N. Gil↳ C. Sención

21'

A. Parra↳ J. Vásquez

26'

Ronaldo LoraPenalty confirmed

29'

G. TorresPenalty

31'

Luis Sandoval

42'

Alexander Mejía

46'

K. Salazar← E. Camargo

46'

J. Castilla← O. Acosta

55'

G. Ramírez↳ J. Vásquez

58'

R. Hinojosa← C. Sención

58'

J. Contreras← D. Vega

59'

F. Castro↳ A. Parra

62'

Edwin Castro

65'

G. Ramírez↳ K. Salazar

69'

J. Cabal← J. Vásquez

71'

G. Baier← A. Mejía

71'

J. Trujillo← J. Mercado

72'

Gustavo Ramírez

74'

A. Arroyo← G. Ramírez

85'

Juan Franco

87'

A. Carreño← R. Márquez

87'

R. Murillo← L. Sandoval

89'

Andrés Arroyo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionDeportivo

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots10

7Corners6

16Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots10

5On Target5

5Off Target3

5Blocked2

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

352Total Passes272

269Accurate Passes185

76%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls18

2Yellow Cards5

4Offsides1