Union Macomb 1–1 Ann Arbor: Result & Stats

Union Macomb

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ann Arbor

5/23/2025

USL League Two · Central Conference - 4Romeo High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Union Macomb20%

×Draw21%

Ann Arbor59%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union MacombExpected goals in this matchAnn Arbor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.08

Union Macomb

1.13

Ann Arbor

2.08

Ann Arbor creates 84% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

1.25

creates per match

1.67

2.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Union Macomb

1.25

Ann Arbor

1.67

allows per match

Union Macomb

2.50

Ann Arbor

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Macomb+0.00on par

Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Macomb ↓

Ann Arbor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Union Macomb or draw

41%

Union Macomb or Ann Arbor

79%

Draw or Ann Arbor

80%

Winning margin

Union Macomb wins by 2+

8%

Ann Arbor wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Union Macomb 1+ goals

68%

Union Macomb 2+ goals

31%

Union Macomb 3+ goals

11%

Ann Arbor 1+ goals

87%

Ann Arbor 2+ goals

61%

Ann Arbor 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Union Macomb (draw refunded)

25%

Ann Arbor (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Macomb at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

Ann Arbor away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Macomb attack 1.25 + Ann Arbor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ann Arbor attack 1.67 + Union Macomb defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Union Macomb scores more

20%

level

21%

Ann Arbor scores more

59%

Ann Arbor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ann Arbor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff