Ann Arbor 4–1 Union Macomb: Result & Stats

Ann Arbor

FT

4 – 1

Union Macomb

5/11/2024

USL League Two · Central Conference - 1Pioneer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ann Arbor52%

×Draw22%

Union Macomb27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ann ArborExpected goals in this matchUnion Macomb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.41

Ann Arbor

2.04

Union Macomb

1.41

Ann Arbor creates 45% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.93

creates per match

1.46

1.36

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Ann Arbor

1.93

Union Macomb

1.46

allows per match

Ann Arbor

1.36

Union Macomb

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Union Macomb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ann Arbor ↓

Union Macomb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ann Arbor or draw

73%

Ann Arbor or Union Macomb

78%

Draw or Union Macomb

48%

Winning margin

Ann Arbor wins by 2+

30%

Union Macomb wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ann Arbor 1+ goals

87%

Ann Arbor 2+ goals

60%

Ann Arbor 3+ goals

33%

Union Macomb 1+ goals

76%

Union Macomb 2+ goals

41%

Union Macomb 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ann Arbor (draw refunded)

66%

Union Macomb (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ann Arbor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Union Macomb away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ann Arbor attack 1.93 + Union Macomb defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.04

Union Macomb attack 1.46 + Ann Arbor defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ann Arbor scores more

52%

level

22%

Union Macomb scores more

27%

Ann Arbor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ann Arbor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff