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Union Macomb vs Ann Arbor — USL League Two 2026

Union Macomb
Union Macomb
FT
2 – 3
Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor
6/19/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 10De La Salle High School stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Union Macomb29%
×Draw22%
Ann Arbor50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Macomb
1.52
Ann Arbor
2.04

Ann Arbor creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Union Macomb
1.29
Ann Arbor
1.56

allows per match

Union Macomb
2.53
Ann Arbor
1.75

finishing

Union Macomb+0.00on par
Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Macomb ↓

Ann Arbor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Union Macomb or draw
50%
Union Macomb or Ann Arbor
78%
Draw or Ann Arbor
71%

Winning margin

Union Macomb wins by 2+
13%
Ann Arbor wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Union Macomb 1+ goals
78%
Union Macomb 2+ goals
45%
Union Macomb 3+ goals
20%
Ann Arbor 1+ goals
87%
Ann Arbor 2+ goals
60%
Ann Arbor 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Union Macomb (draw refunded)
37%
Ann Arbor (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Macomb at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

Ann Arbor away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Macomb attack 1.29 + Ann Arbor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ann Arbor attack 1.56 + Union Macomb defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Macomb scores more
29%
level
22%
Ann Arbor scores more
50%

Ann Arbor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ann Arbor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Union Macomb 2–3 Ann Arbor

Ann Arbor beat Union Macomb 3-2 in USL League Two on June 19, 2024.

The match was played at De La Salle High School stadium in Concord, California.