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Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido — Primera División 2018

Union La Calera
Union La Calera
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
4/24/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 11Municipal Nicolas Chahuan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Union La Calera42%
×Draw27%
Coquimbo Unido32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union La Calera
1.38
Coquimbo Unido
1.16

Union La Calera creates 19% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 97 away

creates per match

Union La Calera
1.38
Coquimbo Unido
1.13

allows per match

Union La Calera
1.19
Coquimbo Unido
1.38

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par
Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Coquimbo Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw
68%
Union La Calera or Coquimbo Unido
73%
Draw or Coquimbo Unido
58%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+
20%
Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals
75%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
40%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
16%
Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
69%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
32%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)
57%
Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.38 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.13 + Union La Calera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Union La Calera scores more
42%
level
27%
Coquimbo Unido scores more
32%

Union La Calera at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido

Coquimbo Unido beat Union La Calera 2-1 in Primera División on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan in La Calera.