Union La Calera 1–4 Coquimbo Unido: Result & Stats

Union La Calera

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Coquimbo Unido

7/2/2025

Copa Chile · Round of 16Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Union La Calera35%

×Draw27%

Coquimbo Unido39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union La CaleraExpected goals in this matchCoquimbo Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.33

Union La Calera

1.25

Coquimbo Unido

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 21 away

1.55

creates per match

1.10

1.55

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Union La Calera

1.55

Coquimbo Unido

1.10

allows per match

Union La Calera

1.55

Coquimbo Unido

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Coquimbo Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw

61%

Union La Calera or Coquimbo Unido

73%

Draw or Coquimbo Unido

65%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+

15%

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals

71%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

36%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

13%

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

74%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

38%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

47%

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.55 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.10 + Union La Calera defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union La Calera scores more

35%

level

27%

Coquimbo Unido scores more

39%

Coquimbo Unido at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff