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Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera — Copa De La Liga 2026

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unidoadvanced
Pens
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Union La Calera
Union La Calera
F. Pons 120+7' (pen)
S. Cordero 120+6' (pen)
D. Sanchez 120+5' (pen)
L. Pratto 120+4' (pen)
S. Galani 120+1' (pen)
N. Palma 120+6' (pen)
M. Campos 120+5' (pen), 86'
B. Oyarzo Munoz 120+4' (pen)
C. Diaz 120+2' (pen)
7/12/2026Copa De La LigaCopa De La Liga · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Coquimbo Unido31%
×Draw29%
Union La Calera40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.00
Union La Calera
1.17

Union La Calera creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.67
Union La Calera
1.33

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.00
Union La Calera
0.33

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par
Union La Calera+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Union La Calera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
60%
Coquimbo Unido or Union La Calera
71%
Draw or Union La Calera
69%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
12%
Union La Calera wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
63%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
26%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
8%
Union La Calera 1+ goals
69%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
33%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
44%
Union La Calera (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.67 + Union La Calera defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Union La Calera attack 1.33 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
31%
level
29%
Union La Calera scores more
40%

Union La Calera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
C. Diaz
11'
M. Hiriart
45'
J. Requena
49'
F. Salinas
60'
M. Campos← C. Villanueva
60'
B. Oyarzo Munoz← M. Hiriart
63'
S. Cordero← J. Cornejo
63'
S. Cabrera← P. Rodriguez
74'
A. E. Azocar Machuca← L. Riveros
74'
F. Pons← N. Johansen
80'
D. Sanchez
80'
J. Cruz← C. Moya
82'
A. Camargo
84'
K. Mendez
86'
M. Campos
88'
Y. W. Andia Leon← F. Pozzo
89'
L. Pratto← A. Camargo
120+1'
S. GalaniPenalty
120+1'
K. MendezMissed penalty
120+2'
C. ZavalaMissed penalty
120+2'
C. DiazPenalty
120+3'
S. CabreraMissed penalty
120+3'
J. CruzMissed penalty
120+4'
L. PrattoPenalty
120+4'
B. Oyarzo MunozPenalty
120+5'
D. SanchezPenalty
120+5'
M. CamposPenalty
120+6'
S. CorderoPenalty
120+6'
N. PalmaPenalty
120+7'
F. PonsPenalty
120+7'
C. GutierrezMissed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera

Union La Calera beat Coquimbo Unido 1-0 in Copa De La Liga on July 12, 2026.

Goals: M. Campos (86', 120+5' pen), S. Galani (120+1' pen), C. Diaz (120+2' pen), L. Pratto (120+4' pen), B. Oyarzo Munoz (120+4' pen), D. Sanchez (120+5' pen), S. Cordero (120+6' pen), N. Palma (120+6' pen), F. Pons (120+7' pen).