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Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla — Primera División 2018

Union Espanola
Union Espanola
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
4/10/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 3Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Union Espanola50%
×Draw23%
D. Melipilla27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Espanola
1.76
D. Melipilla
1.23

Union Espanola creates 43% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 16 away

creates per match

Union Espanola
1.64
D. Melipilla
1.00

allows per match

Union Espanola
1.46
D. Melipilla
1.88

finishing

Union Espanola+0.00on par
D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

D. Melipilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw
73%
Union Espanola or D. Melipilla
77%
Draw or D. Melipilla
50%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+
27%
D. Melipilla wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals
83%
Union Espanola 2+ goals
52%
Union Espanola 3+ goals
26%
D. Melipilla 1+ goals
71%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
35%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)
65%
D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.46 · 121 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 1.64 + D. Melipilla defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

D. Melipilla attack 1.00 + Union Espanola defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Espanola scores more
50%
level
23%
D. Melipilla scores more
27%

Union Espanola at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Union Espanola 0–2 D. Melipilla

D. Melipilla beat Union Espanola 2-0 in Primera División on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Santiago de Chile.