Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

D. Melipilla vs Union Espanola — Primera División 2018

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Union Espanola
Union Espanola
9/7/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 20Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

D. Melipilla43%
×Draw25%
Union Espanola32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
1.50
Union Espanola
1.25

D. Melipilla creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 120 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
1.44
Union Espanola
1.19

allows per match

D. Melipilla
1.31
Union Espanola
1.55

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Union Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Union Espanola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
68%
D. Melipilla or Union Espanola
75%
Draw or Union Espanola
57%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
21%
Union Espanola wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
78%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
44%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
19%
Union Espanola 1+ goals
71%
Union Espanola 2+ goals
36%
Union Espanola 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
58%
Union Espanola (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Union Espanola away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.44 + Union Espanola defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Union Espanola attack 1.19 + D. Melipilla defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
43%
level
25%
Union Espanola scores more
32%

D. Melipilla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: D. Melipilla vs Union Espanola

Union Espanola beat D. Melipilla 3-0 in Primera División on September 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.