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D. Melipilla vs Union Espanola — Copa Chile 2019

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Espanola
Union Espanola
6/8/2019Copa ChileCopa Chile · 2nd RoundEstadio Municipal Roberto Bravo Santibáñez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

D. Melipilla30%
×Draw33%
Union Espanola36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
0.82
Union Espanola
0.93

Union Espanola creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
0.60
Union Espanola
1.45

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.40
Union Espanola
1.05

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Union Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Union Espanola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–116%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
64%
D. Melipilla or Union Espanola
67%
Draw or Union Espanola
70%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
10%
Union Espanola wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
56%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
20%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
5%
Union Espanola 1+ goals
61%
Union Espanola 2+ goals
24%
Union Espanola 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
45%
Union Espanola (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Union Espanola away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 0.60 + Union Espanola defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.82

Union Espanola attack 1.45 + D. Melipilla defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
30%
level
33%
Union Espanola scores more
36%

Union Espanola at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: D. Melipilla vs Union Espanola

D. Melipilla and Union Espanola drew 0-0 in Copa Chile on June 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Roberto Bravo Santibáñez in Melipilla.