Union Comercio 1–0 Academia Cantolao

Union Comercio

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Academia Cantolao

C. Vargas 71'

6/22/2025

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Union Comercio61%

×Draw22%

Academia Cantolao17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union ComercioExpected goals in this matchAcademia Cantolao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.86

Union Comercio

1.87

Academia Cantolao

0.86

Union Comercio creates 117% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

2.20

creates per match

0.89

0.84

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Union Comercio

2.20

Academia Cantolao

0.89

allows per match

Union Comercio

0.84

Academia Cantolao

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Comercio+0.00on par

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Comercio ↓

Academia Cantolao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Union Comercio or draw

83%

Union Comercio or Academia Cantolao

78%

Draw or Academia Cantolao

39%

Winning margin

Union Comercio wins by 2+

36%

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Union Comercio 1+ goals

85%

Union Comercio 2+ goals

56%

Union Comercio 3+ goals

29%

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

58%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

21%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Union Comercio (draw refunded)

78%

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Comercio at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.84 · 45 matches

Academia Cantolao away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Comercio attack 2.20 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.87

Academia Cantolao attack 0.89 + Union Comercio defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Union Comercio scores more

61%

level

22%

Academia Cantolao scores more

17%

Union Comercio at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

J. Jimenez← R. Valenzuela

46'

C. Vargas← L. Farias

46'

A. Calero← G. Oliva

59'

J. Ayala← C. Vargas

59'

J. Arrieta← K. Sanchez

69'

M. Velarde← G. Morales

71'

C. Vargas

Union

Academia

1

Razzeto

4

▼

25

3

20

32

11

▼

16

5

7

10

21

26

4

17

28

14

▼

Vargas

5

▼

Sanchez

8

Marcos

29

Perlaza

11

▼

Farias

20

▼

Morales

Manager: J. Oropesa

46'▲C. Vargas←▼L. Farias

59'▲J. Ayala←▼C. Vargas

59'▲J. Arrieta←▼K. Sanchez

69'▲M. Velarde←▼G. Morales

Union Comercio substitutes

12Quiroz30Isuiza18Ayala19Delgado24Ordonez10Velarde7Vargas15Marines9Arrieta

Manager: J. Mariño

28'▲J. Jimenez←▼R. Valenzuela

46'▲A. Calero←▼G. Oliva

Academia Cantolao substitutes

12Bettocchi80Falcon18Jimenez9Calero27Gonzales

Segunda División: Union Comercio 1–0 Academia Cantolao

Union Comercio beat Academia Cantolao 1-0 in Segunda División on June 22, 2025.

Goals: C. Vargas (71').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia in Tarapoto.

Union Comercio vs Academia Cantolao — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Union Comercio 1–0 Academia Cantolao