Academia Cantolao vs Union Comercio — Segunda División 2026
Segunda División · Round 4Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Academia Cantolao31%
Union Comercio41%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Union Comercio creates 19% more chances
Season form · 30 home / 45 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Academia Cantolao ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches
Union Comercio away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Academia Cantolao attack 1.10 + Union Comercio defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10
Union Comercio attack 1.33 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Union Comercio at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Academia Cantolao substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsUnion Comercio
Deportivo Llacuabamba
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes
Molinos El Pirata
Bentín Tacna Heroica
Santos
Cesar Vallejo
FC Cajamarca
Carlos A. Mannucci
U. San Martin
Deportiva AgropecuariaAcademia Cantolao
Deportivo Coopsol
Alianza Universidad
Sport Huancayo 2
Ayacucho FC
Estudiantil CNI
Minas
Deportivo Binacional
San MarcosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Academia Cantolao host Union Comercio on Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 16:00. The match is part of the Segunda División 2026/2027 season.
Academia Cantolao 0 – 1 Union Comercio
Union Comercio beat Academia Cantolao 1-0 in Segunda División on April 26, 2026.
Goals: Javier Navea (37').