Union Comercio vs Academia Cantolao — Primera División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 71+ matches
Union Comercio45%
Academia Cantolao31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Union Comercio creates 24% more chances
Season form · 71 home / 95 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Union Comercio ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Union Comercio at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.69 · 71 matches
Academia Cantolao away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.72 · 95 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Union Comercio attack 1.49 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.60
Academia Cantolao attack 0.89 + Union Comercio defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.29
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Union Comercio at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Alianza Lima
Cusco
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Huancayo
Sport Boys
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
UTC Cajamarca
Ayacucho FC
Alianza Universidad
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo BinacionalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Union Comercio host Academia Cantolao on Saturday, 26 August 2023 at 18:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Union Comercio vs Academia Cantolao
Union Comercio beat Academia Cantolao 2-1 in Primera División on August 26, 2023.
Goals: M. de Jesús (9', 33'), I. Regalado (67').
Academia Cantolao controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 9.
The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García in Tarapoto.