Union Berlin 1–1 Hertha Berlin: Result & Stats

Union Berlin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hertha Berlin

R. Andrich 9'

D. Lukébakio 35' (pen)

4/4/2021

Bundesliga · Round 27Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Union Berlin50%

×Draw24%

Hertha Berlin26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union BerlinExpected goals in this matchHertha Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.16

Union Berlin

1.71

Hertha Berlin

1.16

Union Berlin creates 47% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 79 away

1.52

creates per match

1.19

1.12

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Union Berlin

1.52

Hertha Berlin

1.19

allows per match

Union Berlin

1.12

Hertha Berlin

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Berlin+0.00on par

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin ↓

Hertha Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Union Berlin or draw

74%

Union Berlin or Hertha Berlin

76%

Draw or Hertha Berlin

50%

Winning margin

Union Berlin wins by 2+

27%

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Berlin 1+ goals

82%

Union Berlin 2+ goals

51%

Union Berlin 3+ goals

24%

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

69%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

32%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin (draw refunded)

66%

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.12 · 102 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin attack 1.52 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hertha Berlin attack 1.19 + Union Berlin defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Berlin scores more

50%

level

24%

Hertha Berlin scores more

26%

Union Berlin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

N. Schlotterbeck

Union Berlin · D

7.2

Match Events

9'

17'

28'

28'

35'

D. LukébakioPenalty

45'

Lucas Tousart

53'

Jordan Torunarigha

62'

S. Ascacíbar← D. Lukébakio

73'

M. Ingvartsen← G. Prömel

78'

Santiago Ascacibar

79'

S. Khedira← M. Guendouzi

83'

J. Pohjanpalo← P. Musa

90+2'

K. Piątek← J. Córdoba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionHertha

Overview

59%Possession41%

13Total Shots4

2Corners3

13Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots4

3On Target1

6Off Target2

4Blocked1

8Inside Box2

5Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

540Total Passes380

431Accurate Passes286

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides4