Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hertha Berlin vs Union Berlin — Bundesliga 2026

Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
T. Baumgartl 49' (OG)
S. Michel 85'
S. Becker 74'
G. Prömel 53'
G. Haraguchi 31'
4/9/2022BundesligaBundesliga · Round 29Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Hertha Berlin41%
×Draw25%
Union Berlin35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Berlin
1.52
Union Berlin
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 106 away

creates per match

Hertha Berlin
1.35
Union Berlin
1.11

allows per match

Hertha Berlin
1.66
Union Berlin
1.70

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par
Union Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

Union Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw
65%
Hertha Berlin or Union Berlin
75%
Draw or Union Berlin
59%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
20%
Union Berlin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
78%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
45%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
20%
Union Berlin 1+ goals
75%
Union Berlin 2+ goals
40%
Union Berlin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
54%
Union Berlin (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.66 · 80 matches

Union Berlin away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.35 + Union Berlin defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Union Berlin attack 1.11 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more
41%
level
25%
Union Berlin scores more
35%

Hertha Berlin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
S. BeckerUnion BerlinUnion Berlin · F
9.2

Match Events

13'
Marcel Lotka
20'
Stevan Jovetić
21'
I. Belfodil← S. Jovetić
31'
G. Haraguchi↳ S. Becker
46'
M. Dárdai← J. Eitschberger
46'
M. Mittelstädt← V. Darida
49'
T. BaumgartlOwn goal
53'
G. Prömel↳ N. Gießelmann
61'
Marc-Oliver Kempf
61'
A. Schäfer← G. Haraguchi
65'
Lucas Tousart
72'
B. Oczipka← N. Gießelmann
72'
J. Ryerson← D. Heintz
74'
S. Serdar← M. Maolida
74'
J. Ekkelenkamp← S. Ascacíbar
74'
S. Becker↳ A. Schäfer
82'
A. Voglsammer← T. Awoniyi
82'
S. Michel← S. Becker
85'
S. Michel↳ T. Baumgartl

Possession

53%Hertha

Shots

11Hertha

Pass accuracy

51%Hertha

Statistics

HerthaUnion
Overview
53%Possession47%
11Total Shots16
2Corners8
10Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots16
3On Target12
6Off Target2
2Blocked2
7Inside Box11
4Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
462Total Passes406
364Accurate Passes305
79%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
8Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls11
4Yellow Cards0
1Offsides4

Bundesliga: Hertha Berlin 1–4 Union Berlin

Union Berlin beat Hertha Berlin 4-1 in Bundesliga on April 9, 2022.

Goals: G. Haraguchi (31'), T. Baumgartl (49' o.g.), G. Prömel (53'), S. Becker (74'), S. Michel (85').

Hertha Berlin controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.