Hertha Berlin 0–2 Union Berlin: Result & Stats

Hertha Berlin

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Union Berlin

P. Seguin 67'

D. Doekhi 44'

1/28/2023

Bundesliga · Round 18Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Hertha Berlin41%

×Draw25%

Union Berlin35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BerlinExpected goals in this matchUnion Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.39

Hertha Berlin

1.52

Union Berlin

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 106 away

1.35

creates per match

1.11

1.66

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Hertha Berlin

1.35

Union Berlin

1.11

allows per match

Hertha Berlin

1.66

Union Berlin

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Union Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

Union Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw

65%

Hertha Berlin or Union Berlin

75%

Draw or Union Berlin

59%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

20%

Union Berlin wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

78%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

45%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

20%

Union Berlin 1+ goals

75%

Union Berlin 2+ goals

40%

Union Berlin 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

54%

Union Berlin (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.66 · 80 matches

Union Berlin away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.35 + Union Berlin defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Union Berlin attack 1.11 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more

41%

level

25%

Union Berlin scores more

35%

Hertha Berlin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

D. Doekhi

Union Berlin · D

8.0

Match Events

44'

D. Doekhi↳ C. Trimmel

46'

P. Seguin← A. Schäfer

49'

Rani Khedira

61'

J. Ngankam← W. Kanga

67'

P. Seguin↳ S. Becker

68'

Paul SeguinGoal confirmed

69'

F. Niederlechner← J. Boëtius

70'

N. Gießelmann← J. Roussillon

70'

J. Siebatcheu← K. Behrens

77'

K. Boateng← P. Pekarík

84'

S. Michel← S. Becker

89'

G. Haraguchi← J. Haberer

90+4'

Kevin-Prince Boateng

90'

Paul Seguin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HerthaUnion

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots7

0.46Expected Goals (xG)1.02

3Corners2

12Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots7

3On Target3

5Off Target1

2Blocked3

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

395Total Passes368

278Accurate Passes245

70%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2