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Hertha Berlin vs Union Berlin — DFB Pokal 2018

Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Union Berlin
Union Berlinadvanced
S. Serdar 90+5'
R. Khedira 54' (OG)
R. Knoche 55'
N. Stark 50' (OG)
A. Voglsammer 11'
1/19/2022DFB PokalDFB Pokal · Round of 16Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hertha Berlin44%
×Draw22%
Union Berlin34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Berlin
1.92
Union Berlin
1.67

Hertha Berlin creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hertha Berlin
2.83
Union Berlin
2.00

allows per match

Hertha Berlin
1.33
Union Berlin
1.00

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par
Union Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

Union Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw
66%
Hertha Berlin or Union Berlin
78%
Draw or Union Berlin
56%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
24%
Union Berlin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
85%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
57%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
30%
Union Berlin 1+ goals
81%
Union Berlin 2+ goals
50%
Union Berlin 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
56%
Union Berlin (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Union Berlin away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 2.83 + Union Berlin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Union Berlin attack 2.00 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more
44%
level
22%
Union Berlin scores more
34%

Hertha Berlin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
S. SerdarHertha BerlinHertha Berlin · M
7.7

Match Events

11'
A. Voglsammer↳ M. Kruse
15'
Suat Serdar
34'
Andreas VoglsammerPenalty cancelled
43'
Levin Öztunali
46'
M. Maolida← M. Richter
46'
P. Pekarík← L. Klünter
50'
N. StarkOwn goal
54'
R. KhediraOwn goal
55'
R. Knoche↳ B. Oczipka
58'
L. Gechter← N. Stark
64'
K. Behrens← A. Voglsammer
64'
G. Haraguchi← L. Öztunali
71'
C. Trimmel← J. Ryerson
71'
S. Becker← M. Kruse
75'
K. Boateng← S. Ascacíbar
87'
D. Selke← V. Darida
89'
P. Jaeckel← D. Heintz
90+5'
S. Serdar

Possession

67%Hertha

Shots

17Hertha

Pass accuracy

55%Hertha

Statistics

HerthaUnion
Overview
67%Possession33%
17Total Shots11
8Corners4
11Fouls18
Shots
17Total Shots11
2On Target5
7Off Target2
8Blocked4
10Inside Box8
7Outside Box3
Passing
67%Possession33%
639Total Passes317
535Accurate Passes215
84%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls18
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

DFB Pokal: Hertha Berlin 2–3 Union Berlin

Union Berlin beat Hertha Berlin 3-2 in DFB Pokal on January 19, 2022.

Goals: A. Voglsammer (11'), N. Stark (50' o.g.), R. Khedira (54' o.g.), R. Knoche (55'), S. Serdar (90+5').

Hertha Berlin controlled possession (67%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.