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Union Berlin vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Union Berlin
Union Berlin
FT
2 – 0
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
8/12/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Alte Försterei Nebenplatz Kunstrasen 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Union Berlin51%
×Draw21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Berlin
2.06
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.48

Union Berlin creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Union Berlin
1.83
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.30

allows per match

Union Berlin
0.67
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.30

finishing

Union Berlin+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Union Berlin or draw
72%
Union Berlin or FC Wurzburger Kickers
79%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
49%

Winning margin

Union Berlin wins by 2+
30%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union Berlin 1+ goals
87%
Union Berlin 2+ goals
61%
Union Berlin 3+ goals
34%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
77%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
43%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin (draw refunded)
65%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 2.30, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin attack 1.83 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.06

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.30 + Union Berlin defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Union Berlin scores more
51%
level
21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
28%

Union Berlin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Union Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Berlin vs FC Wurzburger Kickers

Union Berlin beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Alte Försterei Nebenplatz Kunstrasen 2 in Berlin.