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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Union Berlin — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
9/21/20162. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 6Flyeralarm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers30%
×Draw27%
Union Berlin43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.09
Union Berlin
1.36

Union Berlin creates 25% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.00
Union Berlin
1.24

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.48
Union Berlin
1.18

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Union Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Union Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
57%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or Union Berlin
73%
Draw or Union Berlin
70%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
12%
Union Berlin wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
66%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
30%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
10%
Union Berlin 1+ goals
74%
Union Berlin 2+ goals
39%
Union Berlin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
41%
Union Berlin (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Union Berlin away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.00 + Union Berlin defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Union Berlin attack 1.24 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
30%
level
27%
Union Berlin scores more
43%

Union Berlin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Union Berlin

Union Berlin beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on September 21, 2016.

The match was played at Flyeralarm Arena in Wuerzburg.