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Union Berlin vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Union Berlin
Union Berlin
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
3/3/20172. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 23An der Alten Försterei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Union Berlin64%
×Draw21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Berlin
1.99
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.83

Union Berlin creates 140% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 28 away

creates per match

Union Berlin
2.09
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.93

allows per match

Union Berlin
0.73
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.89

finishing

Union Berlin+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Union Berlin or draw
85%
Union Berlin or FC Wurzburger Kickers
79%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
36%

Winning margin

Union Berlin wins by 2+
39%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Union Berlin 1+ goals
86%
Union Berlin 2+ goals
59%
Union Berlin 3+ goals
32%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
56%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
20%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin (draw refunded)
81%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin attack 2.09 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.99

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.93 + Union Berlin defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Union Berlin scores more
64%
level
21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
15%

Union Berlin at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Union Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Union Berlin 2–0 FC Wurzburger Kickers

Union Berlin beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on March 3, 2017.

The match was played at An der Alten Försterei in Berlin.