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Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld — DFB Pokal 2018

Union Berlin
Union Berlin
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld
10/29/2025DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 2nd RoundStadion An der Alten Försterei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Union Berlin32%
×Draw20%
Arminia Bielefeld48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Berlin
1.92
Arminia Bielefeld
2.38

Arminia Bielefeld creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Union Berlin
2.00
Arminia Bielefeld
3.17

allows per match

Union Berlin
1.60
Arminia Bielefeld
1.83

finishing

Union Berlin+0.00on par
Arminia Bielefeld+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin ↓

Arminia Bielefeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Union Berlin or draw
52%
Union Berlin or Arminia Bielefeld
80%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld
68%

Winning margin

Union Berlin wins by 2+
16%
Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Union Berlin 1+ goals
85%
Union Berlin 2+ goals
57%
Union Berlin 3+ goals
30%
Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals
91%
Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals
68%
Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin (draw refunded)
40%
Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Arminia Bielefeld away — creates 3.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin attack 2.00 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Arminia Bielefeld attack 3.17 + Union Berlin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union Berlin scores more
32%
level
20%
Arminia Bielefeld scores more
48%

Arminia Bielefeld at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld

Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld drew 1-1 in DFB Pokal on October 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin.