Arminia Bielefeld 2–0 Union Berlin: Result & Stats

Arminia Bielefeld

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Union Berlin

10/30/2024

DFB Pokal · 2nd RoundSchücoArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld31%

×Draw23%

Union Berlin46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia BielefeldExpected goals in this matchUnion Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.75

Arminia Bielefeld

1.39

Union Berlin

1.75

Union Berlin creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.78

creates per match

2.07

1.44

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld

1.78

Union Berlin

2.07

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld

1.44

Union Berlin

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld+0.00on par

Union Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld ↓

Union Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld or draw

54%

Arminia Bielefeld or Union Berlin

77%

Draw or Union Berlin

69%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+

14%

Union Berlin wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals

75%

Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

40%

Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals

16%

Union Berlin 1+ goals

83%

Union Berlin 2+ goals

52%

Union Berlin 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)

40%

Union Berlin (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Union Berlin away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.78 + Union Berlin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Union Berlin attack 2.07 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arminia Bielefeld scores more

31%

level

23%

Union Berlin scores more

46%

Union Berlin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff