Union Berlin 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld: Result & Stats

Union Berlin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arminia Bielefeld

9/25/2021

Bundesliga · Round 6Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Union Berlin54%

×Draw25%

Arminia Bielefeld22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union BerlinExpected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.93

Union Berlin

1.63

Arminia Bielefeld

0.93

Union Berlin creates 75% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 34 away

1.51

creates per match

0.74

1.11

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Union Berlin

1.51

Arminia Bielefeld

0.74

allows per match

Union Berlin

1.11

Arminia Bielefeld

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Berlin+0.00on par

Arminia Bielefeld+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin ↓

Arminia Bielefeld →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Union Berlin or draw

78%

Union Berlin or Arminia Bielefeld

75%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld

46%

Winning margin

Union Berlin wins by 2+

29%

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union Berlin 1+ goals

80%

Union Berlin 2+ goals

48%

Union Berlin 3+ goals

22%

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals

61%

Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

24%

Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin (draw refunded)

71%

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.11 · 104 matches

Arminia Bielefeld away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin attack 1.51 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.74 + Union Berlin defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Union Berlin scores more

54%

level

25%

Arminia Bielefeld scores more

22%

Union Berlin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Union Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff