Union Berlin U19 1–1 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Union Berlin U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Y. Cinar 54'

P. Scheder 35'

12/8/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 14Stadion An der Wuhlheide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Union Berlin U1957%

×Draw20%

Carl Zeiss Jena U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.38

Union Berlin U19

2.24

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.38

Union Berlin U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 60 away

2.30

creates per match

1.37

1.39

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Union Berlin U19

2.30

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.37

allows per match

Union Berlin U19

1.39

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw

77%

Union Berlin U19 or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

80%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

43%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

35%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

89%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

65%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

38%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

75%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

40%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.39 · 70 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.18 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.30 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.24

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 1.37 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

23%

Union Berlin U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

P. Scheder

46'

Y. Cinar← B. Inaler

54'

Y. Cinar

59'

J. Heublein← P. Scheder

65'

K. Amesse← F. Modler

67'

D. Lehmpfuhl← D. Schirner

83'

L. Sitz← D. Eidtner

Union

Carl

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: W. Weisse

46'▲Y. Cinar←▼B. Inaler

83'▲L. Sitz←▼D. Eidtner

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

CinarSitzLudosanAksakalMöllerWernerKoch

Manager: C. Fröhlich

59'▲J. Heublein←▼P. Scheder

65'▲K. Amesse←▼F. Modler

67'▲D. Lehmpfuhl←▼D. Schirner

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

HeubleinAmesseLehmpfuhlFeriziBoogEllenfeldFleischer