Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Carl Zeiss Jena U19
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Union Berlin U19
Union Berlin U19
2/19/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 13Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U1938%
×Draw21%
Union Berlin U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19
1.92
Union Berlin U19
2.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 70 away

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19
2.15
Union Berlin U19
2.03

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19
2.00
Union Berlin U19
1.69

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par
Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or draw
59%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or Union Berlin U19
79%
Draw or Union Berlin U19
62%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+
20%
Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals
85%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals
57%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals
30%
Union Berlin U19 1+ goals
87%
Union Berlin U19 2+ goals
59%
Union Berlin U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)
48%
Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at home — creates 2.15, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.69 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 2.15 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.92

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.03 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more
38%
level
21%
Union Berlin U19 scores more
41%

Union Berlin U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1–3 Union Berlin U19

Union Berlin U19 beat Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3 in Jena.