Carl Zeiss Jena U19 0–0 Union Berlin U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union Berlin U19

8/11/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U1937%

×Draw21%

Union Berlin U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19Expected goals in this matchUnion Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.98

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.86

Union Berlin U19

1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 76 away

2.02

creates per match

1.95

2.00

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.02

Union Berlin U19

1.95

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.00

Union Berlin U19

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or draw

58%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or Union Berlin U19

79%

Draw or Union Berlin U19

63%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

19%

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

84%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

55%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

28%

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

86%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

59%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.00 · 60 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.70 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 2.02 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.86

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.95 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

37%

level

21%

Union Berlin U19 scores more

42%

Union Berlin U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

L. Ferizi← N. Jahn

67'

D. Eidtner← T. Maciejewski

70'

N. Boog← K. Amesse

80'

V. Kledian← E. Aksakal

81'

R. Fleischer← W. Dedidis

88'

J. Werner← L. Sitz

90+1'

J. Heublein← E. Voufack

Carl

Union

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Fröhlich

67'▲L. Ferizi←▼N. Jahn

70'▲N. Boog←▼K. Amesse

81'▲R. Fleischer←▼W. Dedidis

90+1'▲J. Heublein←▼E. Voufack

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

FeriziBoogFleischerHeubleinLehmpfuhlJurkeReithmeir

Manager: W. Weisse

67'▲D. Eidtner←▼T. Maciejewski

80'▲V. Kledian←▼E. Aksakal

88'▲J. Werner←▼L. Sitz

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

EidtnerKledianWernerLudosanMarkhoffMöllerWerbelow

Match Recap: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Union Berlin U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 and Union Berlin U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3 in Jena.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Union Berlin U19