Unia Swarzędz 1–7 Sokół Kleczew: Result & Stats

Unia Swarzędz

FT

1 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

Sokół Kleczew

M. Deppe 88'

Unknown 71', 68', 60', 49', 33', 27', 22'

7/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Unia Swarzędz23%

×Draw18%

Sokół Kleczew59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unia SwarzędzExpected goals in this matchSokół Kleczew

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.79

Unia Swarzędz

1.75

Sokół Kleczew

2.79

Sokół Kleczew creates 59% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

3.25

2.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Unia Swarzędz

2.00

Sokół Kleczew

3.25

allows per match

Unia Swarzędz

2.33

Sokół Kleczew

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Swarzędz ↓

Sokół Kleczew →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Unia Swarzędz or draw

41%

Unia Swarzędz or Sokół Kleczew

82%

Draw or Sokół Kleczew

77%

Winning margin

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+

11%

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals

83%

Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals

52%

Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals

25%

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals

94%

Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals

76%

Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)

28%

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Swarzędz at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Sokół Kleczew away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Swarzędz attack 2.00 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sokół Kleczew attack 3.25 + Unia Swarzędz defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Unia Swarzędz scores more

23%

level

18%

Sokół Kleczew scores more

59%

Sokół Kleczew at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sokół Kleczew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

27'

33'

49'

60'

68'

71'

88'

M. Deppe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff