Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sokół Kleczew vs Unia Swarzędz — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Sokół Kleczew
Sokół Kleczew
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
8/15/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Sokół Kleczew44%
×Draw24%
Unia Swarzędz32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Kleczew
1.70
Unia Swarzędz
1.41

Sokół Kleczew creates 21% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

creates per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.88
Unia Swarzędz
1.51

allows per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.31
Unia Swarzędz
1.52

finishing

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par
Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Kleczew ↓

Unia Swarzędz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sokół Kleczew or draw
68%
Sokół Kleczew or Unia Swarzędz
76%
Draw or Unia Swarzędz
56%

Winning margin

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+
23%
Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals
82%
Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals
51%
Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals
24%
Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
76%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
41%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)
58%
Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Kleczew at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Unia Swarzędz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.88 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.70

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.51 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sokół Kleczew scores more
44%
level
24%
Unia Swarzędz scores more
32%

Sokół Kleczew at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sokół Kleczew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Kleczew vs Unia Swarzędz

Sokół Kleczew beat Unia Swarzędz 4-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kleczew.