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Unia Swarzędz vs Sokół Kleczew — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sokół Kleczew
Sokół Kleczew
3/8/2025III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Unia Swarzędz42%
×Draw25%
Sokół Kleczew33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Swarzędz
1.49
Sokół Kleczew
1.28

Unia Swarzędz creates 16% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 84 away

creates per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.52
Sokół Kleczew
1.48

allows per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.08
Sokół Kleczew
1.46

finishing

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par
Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Swarzędz ↓

Sokół Kleczew →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Unia Swarzędz or draw
67%
Unia Swarzędz or Sokół Kleczew
75%
Draw or Sokół Kleczew
58%

Winning margin

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
21%
Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
77%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
44%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
19%
Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals
72%
Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals
37%
Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
56%
Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Swarzędz at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Sokół Kleczew away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.46 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.52 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.48 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Unia Swarzędz scores more
42%
level
25%
Sokół Kleczew scores more
33%

Unia Swarzędz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Swarzędz vs Sokół Kleczew

Sokół Kleczew beat Unia Swarzędz 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Swarzędz.