Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük — 1. Lig 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
Ümraniyespor39%
Fatih Karagümrük34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 125 home / 37 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ümraniyespor ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ümraniyespor at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches
Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ümraniyespor attack 1.55 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31
Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.35 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Ümraniyespor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Ümraniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Denizlispor
Genclerbirligi
Hatayspor
Osmanlıspor
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Adana Demirspor
AltınorduÜmraniyespor
Boluspor
Altay
İstanbulspor
Adanaspor
Giresunspor
Eskişehirspor
Balıkesirspor
Afjet Afyonspor
Elazığspor
Kardemir KarabuksporIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Ümraniyespor host Fatih Karagümrük on Saturday, 31 August 2024 at 16:15. The match is part of the 1. Lig 2018/2019 season.
1. Lig: Ümraniyespor 2–2 Fatih Karagümrük
Ümraniyespor and Fatih Karagümrük drew 2-2 in 1. Lig on August 31, 2024.
Goals: F. Apaydın (4'), Benny (8'), João Camacho (53'), F. Paoletti (79').
Ümraniyespor controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 12.
The match was played at Spoi̇nt İnşaat Ümrani̇yespor Stadyumu in İstanbul.