Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Ümraniyespor: Result & Stats

Fatih Karagümrük

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ümraniyespor

A. Çankaya 85'

2/9/2025

1. Lig · Round 23Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük48%

×Draw25%

Ümraniyespor27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fatih KaragümrükExpected goals in this matchÜmraniyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.09

Fatih Karagümrük

1.55

Ümraniyespor

1.09

Fatih Karagümrük creates 42% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 125 away

1.68

creates per match

1.16

1.03

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.68

Ümraniyespor

1.16

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.03

Ümraniyespor

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Ümraniyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw

73%

Fatih Karagümrük or Ümraniyespor

75%

Draw or Ümraniyespor

52%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

24%

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

79%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

46%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

20%

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals

66%

Ümraniyespor 2+ goals

30%

Ümraniyespor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

64%

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.03 · 37 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.42 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.68 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.55

Ümraniyespor attack 1.16 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

48%

level

25%

Ümraniyespor scores more

27%

Fatih Karagümrük at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

P. Djilobodji

Fatih Karagümrük · D

8.2

Match Events

36'

Ali Turap Bülbül

56'

Bernardo Sousa

73'

M. Eser← E. Hoti

73'

S. Göksu← A. Babacan

78'

João Camacho

80'

N. Dovedan← João Camacho

81'

Yiğit Efe Demir

84'

B. Çelik← A. Đokanović

85'

A. Çankaya↳ P. Djilobodji

88'

M. Mert← A. Gray

90'

B. Dabanlı← G. Gürpüz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FatihÜmraniyespor

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots13

2Corners5

11Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots13

3On Target1

2Off Target6

2Blocked6

5Inside Box8

2Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

455Total Passes368

357Accurate Passes266

78%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1